Gerontologie und Geriatrieforschung

Abstrakt

Social, Demographic and Behavioral Predictors of 5-Year Mortality in Subjects Over 85 Years in Moscow

Tkacheva ON, Kotovskaya YV, Vorobyeva NM, Runikhina NK, Eruslanova KA*, Cherdak MA

This study is the first prospective observational study with a comprehensive analysis of the social, demographic and behavioral factors of 5-year mortality in persons aged 85 years and older (mean age of 88 years, males 23%) living in Moscow. 229 patients (female 77%) aged 85–94 years (mean age 87.9 ± 2.4 years) were included in the prospective observational study. Anthropometric and vital signs measurements were carried out, and specially designed questionnaires were used to evaluate patient’s history, social and behavioral factors. The follow-up period was 5 years. The primary endpoint was death from any cause. 92 (40.2%) patients died during the follow-up period (median 3.67 years). Cox multivariate analysis revealed hazard ratios (HR) of 6.91 (95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.71–27.83, p=0.007) for BMI<18.5 vs. 18.5-24.9 kg/m², 0.49 (95% CI 0.26–0.92, p=0.026) for BMI 25.0-29.9 kg/ m² vs. 18.5-24.9 kg/m², 2.37 (95% CI 1.20–4.67, p=0.013) for the start of the night sleep after midnight vs. before midnight, 4.00 (95% CI 1.79–8.91, p=0.001) for nighttime sleep duration ≥ 10 h vs. 5-9 h, and 0.28 (95% CI 0.12– 0.69, p=0.005) for history of blood donation vs. never blood donation. In people aged 85 years and over, J-curve was observed to result in the association of BMI and 5-years mortality. Also, it was found that sleeping habits (going to sleep late and longer night sleep) were independently associated with the increased risk of death while the history of blood donation was associated with lower mortality.